Working Papers

Does Public Financing Support Increase Exports? Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment at the US Export-Import Bank (Job Market Paper)

Using the shutdown of the U.S. Export-Import Bank in 2015 as a unique quasi-experiment, I estimate the causal effect of public financing support on exports to study the role of financial frictions in international trade. For each affected industry I compute a counterfactual time series of exports after the shutdown by constructing a synthetic control. On average, the affected industries reduced exports by 2.2%, or 56 cents per dollar of lost support. While statistically significant, this multiplier effect is smaller than that found in previous studies, and it varies considerably across industries supported by the Export-Import Bank (ExIm). My results suggest that public financing support by the ExIm bank can be an effective policy to relax financing constraints and promote exports, but that more efficient targeting across industries could support an additional 66,000 export-related jobs per year.

The Effect of Credit Constraints on Trade in a Quantitative General Equilibrium Model

Welfare, measured as real wage (w/P), increases with higher financial development (A) and lower financial frictions (δ).

I introduce financial frictions, modeled as a collateral constraint for exporters, into a heterogeneous firm model of international trade. My analysis shows that collateral constraints reduce trade and welfare, while financial development increases exports. Financial frictions are also able to explain the imperfect correlation between productivity and exporting status usually observed in the data. Using country-level proxies for financial constraints and financial development, reduced form empirical evidence confirms key predictions of the structural model.

Work in Progress

The Political Economy of Export Promotion: Evidence from Export-Import Bank Reauthorization Votes
(with Colin Jareb and Ge Song)